Dan’s T-Bills are better than gold and will remain so ad infinitum

Dear Dan–some ideas for you in response to your questions about asset valuations…

..I think we are headed into a very deep Depression, primarily for reasons rarely considered.  Mostly, it is a function of demographics. In US–the older generation–my own– will be out of the workforce entirely very soon–so we are going from the heavy spending, inflationary, phase into the deflationary, non-spending phase, of our lives and we are 92 million in number –one-third of the nation–the primary repercussion of all this which is that we stop spending–most particularly in real estate–we don’t need big houses, we don’t need new cars ever again, we don’t need toys.  More poignantly, the next generation is very small compared to my own–they can’t take up the consumption slack.  China is in far worse condition–she inadvertently killed herself with the population policy–China is already massively overbuilt and exposed 50 percent to exports the demand for which will largely dry up as older people don’t need that many new toys.  Back home in China, there are already many, many cities over–built and over capitalized–and vacant– 24% vacancy rate in China–no customers–and they have no new generation of sufficient size to purchase the houses or products–it sounded like a good policy to limit population, but in truth it was suicidal.  Avoid China.  It takes 30 years to grow up a generation–so China is finished for our lifetimes as an attractive investment vehicle.